Nevstar Links 18 July 2025
Welcome back to the Nevstar Links, your guide to some of the best articles on markets and investing available on the internet.
Today is Friday 18th July and it marks the anniversary of one of the most iconic Olympic sporting moments. On this day in 1976, Nadia Comăneci of Romania scored the very first ever perfect "10.00" for her uneven bars routine at the Montreal Olympics. It was an astonishing, flawless performance in the qualifying round which was so unexpected that the scoreboard recorded her score as "1.00" as it only had space for three digits. She went onto record seven perfect scores at the Games and cement her place in sporting history.
Onto the links this week including articles on circles, scams, and signs.
Quarterly Markets Review - Q2 2025
Another trading quarter is in the books with Q2 2025 bringing largely positive investment returns for investors albeit one beset by volatility sparked by the ongoing tariff spats. Good summary of the various investment markets from our friends at Schroders.
"Q2 was characterised by a rise in geopolitical tensions - both due to US tariffs and developments in the Middle East. Recession fears peaked around the so-called "Liberation Day" tariff announcements in the US but later faded as a more conciliatory approach was taken to tariffs. There was a shift in emphasis away from monetary policy, as central banks neared the end of their rate cutting cycles, and towards fiscal policy and what this would mean for debt sustainability."
Anatomy of a WhatsApp Scam
One of the most important contributors to growing your wealth over time is simply to avoid losing it. Unfortunately the resources and effort being applied to financial scams is increasing and relentless. Our main protection remains awareness and vigilance and so this is a timely article revealing an increasingly common WhatsApp fraud based on the venerable 'pump and dump' tactic.
"The WhatsApp/Meta campaign touting the privacy of activity on their platform creates a breeding ground for bad actors and makes shutting these types of scams down nearly impossible."
See also: Amazon Prime Day Is A Scam
The Stock Market Recovery That Wasn't
This is an excellent piece elaborating on an extremely important lesson that all investors should be cognisant of - sometimes we really have no idea why markets go up or down. Markets have rallied to all-time highs at the end of June while the economic outlook seems to have worsened. Trying to explain every market movement is just about impossible and its why investors should largely ignore short term performance.
"On March 13, 2020, stocks jumped 9% after President Trump declared a state of emergency for the COVID pandemic. The S&P 500 has risen after eight out of the 10 worst jobs reports in the past five decades, and dropped during three of the 10 best jobs days. Take a walk down memory lane, and you'll see this irony stretches all the way down the street. When Wall Street deals with a confusing day, the experts usually shrug their shoulders and chalk it up to more buyers than sellers (and vice versa)."
Avoiding Investing Mistakes: Circle of Competence
Great blogpost from Safal Niveshak looking at one of the most common mistakes that investors make - straying outside their circle of competence. Using a sporting analogy comparing Michael Phelps and Hicham El Guerrouj, the writer makes a helpful point about recognising what you are good at and investing accordingly.
"A software engineer, for example, may have keen insight into IT companies but might find a biotech startup baffling. An experienced farmer may intuitively grasp which agri-tech venture can solve real farming problems, yet that same person could be utterly perplexed by a fintech company. Recognising these boundaries keeps you from costly missteps."
20th Anniversary: J.P. Morgan - Eye on Market
Finally something a little bit different. Michael Cembalest, J.P. Morgan's Chairman of Investment Strategy, pens a regular insight entitled 'Eye On The Market' which is distributed to J.P. Morgan clients. On the 20th anniversary of its inception, J.P. Morgan have compiled 30 of his very best insights from the last 20 years. It is a fascinating collection on a wide range of topics and provides a nice repository of notable moments in markets over the last 20 years.
"Two decades ago, there were no smartphones, no ridesharing, no social video platforms. The Federal Reserve's balance sheet stood at $870 billion - just a fraction of today's $7 trillion - and the S&P 500 hovered around 1,250, compared to over 5,950 now. Today, artificial intelligence and generative models are accelerating everything from drug discovery to financial modelling, to rewiring work in general. And yet, many of the same forces remain at the heart of investment decision making - capital costs, disruptive innovation and the ever-present challenge of separating signal from noise."
Quote of the Week
"There is only one sure thing in this life, and that's doubt. I think."
Bruno Lawrence - Goodbye Pork Pie
Neville Giles
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The Nevstar
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