The Nevstar’s Tour De France Guide – 2025
Article Guide - 02 July 2025
The 112th edition of the Tour de France, inarguably the world’s greatest bike race, gets under way on Saturday 5th July with the Grand Depart taking place from Lille in the north of France. The peloton* this year will contest a 21 stage, 3,339-kilometre route over three weeks culminating with the finish in Paris. For the first time since 2020, the entire race will take place completely in France taking an anticlockwise route around the French hexagon.
*See appendix for French terms used in cycling
The 2025 Tour de France main storyline is quite simple – who or what can stop Tadej Pogačar winning the race? The defending champion has been dominating form in 2025, and he is at short odds to add a fourth Tour de France crown. But can two-time winner Jonas Vingegaard rediscover his magical form of 2022 when he remarkably rode Pogačar off his wheel on the climb to Granon. Can Remco Evenepoel, the current world time trial champion, utilise the two individual time trials to launch a challenge? Or will a young cyclist like the German Florian Lipowitz show that he is ready to compete in the grandest of Grand Tours?
The Nevstar Guide will examine the main contenders for the Yellow jersey as well as the three other jerseys that are contested, look at this year’s route and then identify some key stages to watch. Allons y!
The Contenders
It is quite possible, unfortunately, that this year’s Tour may be a bit of a procession largely because the leading contender for the Yellow Jersey seems manifestly better than all of the competition. The best cyclist on the planet right now and making a case to be one of the best ever, is 27-year-old Slovenian Tadej Pogačar of UAE Team Emirates. Since winning the Giro / Tour De France double last year (a feat not achieved since 1998), Pogačar then went on to complete cycling’s Triple Crown with a win at the World Championships in Zurich in September 2024. In 2025, he seems to have gone to an even higher-level contesting a heavy schedule including all of the one-day spring classic races. So far this year he has won the Tour of UAE, Strade Bianchi, Fleche Wallonne, Liège–Bastogne–Liège and the Critérium du Dauphiné. He also, incredibly, turned up on the start line for the formidable Paris – Roubaix cobbled classic and sensationally finished second on his debut performance. It was akin to a Formula 1 driver turning up and coming second in his very first World Rally Championship race.
If anyone thought that this heavy spring schedule would leave him tired and under-prepared for the Tour, these doubts were put to rest by an incredibly dominant and impressive win in the recent Critérium du Dauphiné, the traditional Tour warm-up stage race held in June. Facing both his main competitors in Jonas Vingegaard and Remco Evenepoel, Pogačar simply rode away from his peers on the tough climbs. He didn’t even really attack – he just started to ride at a tempo that no one else could hope to sustain. It was astonishing and left the cycling world searching for superlatives as he won by over a minute and could’ve easily won by more.
It is quite possible we are witnessing the peak era of one of the greatest cyclists of all time with comparisons being genuinely made to the greatest ever in Eddy Merckx. If the prospect of one cyclist dominating the Tour de France puts you off watching, just remember how rarely we get to enjoy viewing a truly inter-generational athlete at the peak of their powers. Think Pele in 1970, Michael Jordan in 1993, Tiger Woods in 2000, or Michael Phelps in 2008 – this is the type of company that Pogačar is entering in the Nevstar’s humble opinion. Winning his fourth Tour de France at the age of only 27 would be a magnificent achievement.
Pogačar will be supported by a very strong team at the Tour although sometimes it feels like Tadej does not need a team! He will likely be joined on the start line by Marc Soler, Pavel Sivakov, Tim Wellens and João Almeida, all of whom are fantastic cyclists capable of winning stages and stage races. João Almeida in particular is one of the best stage racers in the world and recently won the Tour du Suisse which is a pretty hilly race as anyone who has been to Switzerland will attest. He will likely spend quite a bit of time on the front of the leading contenders group pulling on behalf of his team leader and perhaps surprising with some enterprise of his own if given the opportunity.
Tadej’s main, and perhaps only real competition for the yellow jersey, comes in the form of Jonas Vingegaard from Denmark who rides for Visma–Lease a Bike. Lest we forget, Vingegaard is himself a two-time winner of the Tour de France besting Pogačar in both 2022 and 2023. He came second to the Slovenian last year, but his preparations were seriously hampered by a truly awful crash in a lead up race. Jonas is an incredibly gifted stage racer with an tremendous ability to sustain a high wattage output on the long Tour de France climbs. His preparation this year has been largely uninterrupted, and unlike Pogačar, he has spent the entire year aiming to be in peak condition on the start line of the Tour de France. He was definitely a touch behind Pogačar at the Dauphiné but he himself noted that he was not yet at peak fitness and his numbers were comparable, or even slightly better than when he last won in 2023.
His Visma - Lease A Bike team is also the only one that can rival UAE Team Emirates for depth. Riding in support of Vingegaard will be mountain specialists in Matteo Jorgenson, Simon Yates, and Sepp Kuss. He will also be assisted on the flat stages by rouleurs like Tiesj Benoot and powerhouse Victor Campenaerts who once held the One Hour Record for a period.
Also on the team is all-round superstar Wout van Aert who is a phenomenally gifted cyclist capable of winning sprint stages, hilly breakaway stages, mountains stages and individual time trials. Wout is very likely to be prominent throughout the Tour and watch for him to be in an early breakaway group on mountain stages so that he is positioned at the head of the race to assist Jonas later in the day. Jonas will certainly not lose the Tour because his team let him down and indeed it may that they utilise these ample resources to try and isolate Pogačar.
It is hard to see Vingegaard besting Pogačar to win his third Tour. But it is certainly not impossible. As noted, Jonas has already beaten Pogačar twice at the Tour in 2022 and 2023 when he was simply better than Tadej. He has specifically set himself for this event and generally gets stronger as the Tour progresses into the last week. He also is better suited to the long 15km+ climbs that form the bulk of the key mountain stages. His pedigree suggests he is the only cyclist on earth capable of riding at Pogačar’s level and he has no injury concerns unlike last year. It is surely conceivable that Pogačar’s very heavy spring racing calendar will see him more fatigued in the third week than the lightly raced Vingegaard. And there is a lot of racing before we even get to the mountains including a flat Time Trial which will probably favour Jonas over Tadej.
After the top two contenders, there is a relatively sharp drop off to the next best. Vingegaard and Pogačar are simply on another level than the rest of the peloton and would be a major surprise if either of them did not triumph absent any problems caused by mechanicals, crashes, incidents or crowd interference. Next best, according to most betting websites, is Remco Evenepoel, the Belgian superstar who rides for Soudal-Quick Step. Remco is an outstanding cyclist and has been a World Champion at both the Road Race (2022) and Time Trial (2023 and 2024). He won two Olympic Gold medals at the Paris Olympics and has won a Grand Tour already in the form of the Vuelta a España in 2022. Last year, he won the young rider classification in the Tour de France so he can certainly ride at a high level for three weeks. The question is whether he can ride at the same level as the Top Two and the answer on recent form seems to be “No”. The Nevstar thinks he lacks the power/weight ratio required to match Jonas and Tadej on the long climbs. He will however benefit from an early flat time trial which could see him in the yellow jersey early in the race.
Of the other entrants, Richard Carapaz of EF Education – EasyPost is a perennial Grand Tour contender. The Colombian is stage racing specialist with a penchant for the mountains. He will likely be prominent throughout the final steep climbs particularly in the team’s bright pink jerseys. However, I think it is likely that Carapaz may ship time to the leaders early on and look to target the mountains classification (see below) which he won at the 2024 Tour de France.
A new contender for Grand Tour success that has emerged is German rider Florian Lipowitz who rides for the Red Bull–Bora–Hansgrohe team. He placed 2nd overall in Paris – Nice and 3rd in the Dauphiné taking the Young Rider classification in both. This will be Tour debut, and it is his inexperience which may be telling. Winning a Grand Tour is often about maximising your efforts at critical moments and not wasting energy on foolhardy escapades. It will be interesting to see how quickly the young German learns the art of Grand Tour racing. His team mate at Red Bull certainly does not lack experience. The Nevstar’s perennial favourite Primož Roglič will take to the start line for his seventh Tour de France although he has failed to finish the last three he has attempted. Roglič is a super talented racer with wins at both the Italian and Spanish Grand Tours. But Tour de France success has eluded him and, at 35 years old, it’s possible he has missed his opportunity.
This year marks the 40th anniversary of the last local winner of Le Tour when Bernard Hinault triumphed for the fifth time in 1985. In the intervening years, riders from Italy, Spain, Germany, the United States, and Great Britain have all summited the podium not to mention riders from smaller countries like Denmark, Australia, Slovenia and Colombia. But we are VERY unlikely to see the French drought broken this year. David Gaudu is the highest rated French yellow jersey candidate, but he is rated a 200-1 shot to win the Tour. Similarly, the Australians seem to lack a true Yellow jersey contender for the first time in several years with the likes of Ben O’Connor and Jai Hindley failing to capture stage racing form from earlier in the decade. Other long shot contenders for the Yellow jersey include Carlos Rodríguez of Ineos Grenadiers and Enric Mas of Team Movistar.
In terms of prestige, the most important jersey after the famous Yellow jersey is the Green jersey which is targeted by the best sprinters in the peloton. The Green jersey is a points competition with the biggest haul of points awarded for high places on the flat stages. Smaller amounts of points are also awarded for intermediate sprints during the stages and on the hilly stages. It is arguably a harder jersey to win as there are no “off days”. While the yellow jersey candidates can roll along in the peloton during flat stages, the sprinters will need to be near the front for all bunch finishes before hauling their heavier builds over the prodigious mountain passes.
The Green jersey was won last year by the energetic Eritrean Biniam Girmay of Intermarché–Wanty. Girmay was a sensation in last year’s Tour winning three stages and going on to become the first African to win any jersey at the Tour de France. He should be right there in the thick of the sprint stages again this year. His main competition is likely to be the mercurial Jasper Philipsen of Alpecin-Deceuninck who won four stages in the 2023 Tour de France where he was clearly the quickest sprinter. But he is not as dominant at the moment and will be searching for his best form. He will be ably assisted by the incredible Mathieu van der Poel who will provide impeccable lead outs. Van der Poel is one of the strongest one-day riders in the world (he was the man who beat Pogačar in Paris – Roubaix) and he is bound to be sighted on numerous occasions on the hilly terrain that suits him..
Wout van Aert is also a chance at the Green jersey. He is not the best sprinter but is certainly capable of mixing with the best. Indeed, he won the Green jersey in 2022 largely because he was in the Top 5 in most sprints but also scored points on hilly or mountain stages when the other sprinters had been dropped. If he is not required to support his teammate Vingegaard, Wout may target the Green jersey, and he would be hard to beat if that was his sole focus.
The two form sprinters so far this year are Tim Merlier of Soudal-Quick Step and Jonathan Milan of Lidl-Trek. Given the first stage is very likely to be a sprint, there is a good chance that one of these two will be in the Yellow Jersey at the end of stage one. Other sprinters to keep an eye out for are Dylan Groenewegen of Team Jayco–Al Ula, Fernando Gaviria of Movistar and Pascal Ackermann of Israel Premier-Tech.
The white jersey is given to the best young rider over the lap around France with that being defined as someone under the age of 26 at the start of the year. Leading contenders for this hotly contested jersey are the aforementioned Remco Evenepoel, Florian Lipowitz and Carlos Rodríguez.
The last jersey up for grabs is the Polka Dot jersey worn by the leader of the mountain’s classification. This is another points-based competition with points awarded for each of the categorised climbs in the tour. The one who collects the most points is awarded the delightfully named Maillot à Pois Rouge. The mountains competition is often won by someone who is not necessarily the best climber, but a decent climber who gets in lots of early breakaways. To try and make the jersey more relevant to its name, the organisers have started giving more points to the truly giant climbs and double points for mountain top stage finishes so someone like Pogačar or Rodriquez may well triumph in this classification this year. As noted Richard Carapaz may also target this jersey rather than maillot jaune.
At the time of writing, it was not clear how many New Zealanders will be selected as many teams are yet to finalise their 8 riders. It seems likely however that George Bennett will be on the start line wearing the colours of Israel–Premier Tech. George is an excellent climber although is starting to get up there in years at age 35. But he will likely be given licence to target breakaway groups and target being the first New Zealander to win an individual stage of the Tour de France.
The current top rated NZ cyclist is our Commonwealth Games hero Aaron Gate who rides for the XDS Astana team and it’s a possibility that they will offer a Tour de France starting position to Gate who is a talented all-rounder. Arguably our most promising cyclist is young 22-year-old sprinter Laurence Pithie who rides for Red Bull Bora Hansgrohe. Unfortunately, competition for spots in this team will probably be reserved for mountain specialists who can assist team leaders Roglič and Lipowitz. Same goes for Finn Fisher-Black who also rides for Red Bull. One other possible starter is Dion Smith who rides for Intermarché–Wanty and rode the Tour in 2023.
The Route
The organisers of the Tour de France plot a different route every year simultaneously trying to provide a spectacle to fans, a challenge for riders, and a showcase of the beauty of France. The route in 2025 is a bit of a throwback to the Tours of the 1980s and 1990s with a quiet start followed by a frenetic finish. Starting in northern France and heading across to Brittany, the first ten days of the Tour de France feature very little opportunities for the favourites to put time into their rivals as most stages are flat and will favour sprinters. There is one short time trial on stage 5 but it’s not until stage 10 that we see mountains on the stage profile. However, the second half of the Tour is pretty tough as the peloton visits the Massif Central before two mountain stages in the Pyrenees and one more time trial which is only 11km but rides up the tough Peyragudes. The last week sees the tour head into the Alps for some leg-breaking stages culminating in stages 18 and 19. There are five mountain top finishes across the three-week Tour and a total of over 52,500 metres of climbing.
One notable feature is the change to the final stage which has traditionally been a sprint stage along the Champs-Elysees. While the stage still finishes in the same spot, tour director Christian Prudhomme has crafted a different circuit this time featuring three climbs of Montmarte which could potentially allow for some solo attacks in the final stages.
Stages to Watch
While the Nevstar will be watching every stage, for the casual fan there are certainly some stages which are more important than others. So, if you want to circle a few dates on the calendar, here are the stages which the Nevstar thinks will be the most entertaining.
STAGE 1 : Lille Métropole > Lille Métropole, 185km (5 July)
The first stage of the tour will be a rare chance for the sprinters to wear the yellow jersey as the winner of this very flat stage will don the first yellow jersey of the 2025 race. The last 10km will be frenetic and likely to see some riders crash as everyone seeks a favourable position for the sprint home.
STAGE 7 : Saint-Malo > Mûr-de-Bretagne Guerlédan, 197km (11 July)
The first week of the Tour comes to an end with this Classics-like stage featuring a hilly parcours culminating in a double ascent of the infamous Mûr-de-Bretagne climb. It will be one of the first opportunities for yellow jersey combatants to test their legs while also giving an opportunity to the punchy rouleurs in the peloton. Mathieu van der Poel completed a memorable win on a similar stage in 2021 so he will be one to watch again.
STAGE 10 : Ennezat > Le Mont-Dore Puy de Sancy, 165km (14 July)
Bastille Day! Always one of the best days of racing on the Tour is the French National Day celebrating the storming of the Bastille during the French Revolution. The Tour planners have set a demanding route for the peloton which should guarantee some exciting racing. The stage is only 165km long but features eight categorised* climbs and no less than 4,400 vertical metres of climbing. Ouch!
*All hill climbs are categorised based on their length, vertical climb, and gradient. The easiest is category four, then you have category 3, category 2 and category 1. The French then have a final category “HC” which stands for hors categorie or beyond category. The old adage was that the designation was roughly the car gear that you would need to engage to drive up the hill. Fourth gear for Cat 4, third gear for Cat 3 etc. For HC, the hill was considered so steep, you probably needed to get out and push!
STAGE 14: Pau > Luchon-Superbagnères, 183km (19 July)
Definitely one of the toughest stages in this year’s Tour is Stage 14. After surviving the long drag up the 20km long Col du Tourmalet, the peloton then must summit the Col d’Aspin, Col de Peyresourde and then the brutal Superbagneres. There is not one bit of flat road in the second half of this stage – if you aren’t going down, you are going up!
STAGE 15: Montpellier > Mont Ventoux, 171km (22 July)
Mont Ventoux. Two words that strike fear into any mortal cyclist. Simply put, it is one of the toughest climbs in all of cycling with a vertiginous gradient, little shade, strong winds and a foreboding moon-like landscape. The stage today is very simple – ride for 140km on the flat and then ride up one of the most intimidating climbs on the planet. Compelling viewing.
STAGE 18: Vif > Courchevel Col de la Loze, 171km (24 July)
Undoubtedly the queen stage of the 2025 Tour de France. There are three HC climbs in a row as the peloton summits the Col du Glandon, the prodigious Col de la Madeleine and finishes at the highest point of the 2025 Tour at Courchevel. Coming after nearly two weeks of racing, this stage is likely to see significant time gaps between the contenders.
The Nevstar’s Picks
The Tour de France is a generally a difficult event to predict. Part of the Tour’s charm is that it is unpredictable due to weather, form, fatigue, and the vagaries of cycling over public roads with literally hundreds of thousands of spectators constantly within touching distance. Having said that, two men have dominated the Tour in the last five years, and it would be a surprise if either Pogačar or Vingegaard did not add to their list of Tour victories.
It is difficult to see anyone getting near Tadej Pogačar and the Nevstar thinks he will win his fourth Tour de France. As noted earlier, Pogačar is simply other-worldly and it’s a rare privilege to be able to watch one of the all-time greats, in any sport, at the peak of their powers. Pogačar right now is an unmatchable talent with an indomitable spirit and thirst for winning any and everything. At his best, there is no other cyclist on the planet that can stay with him. Only a crash, illness or some spectacular loss of form would see him fail to defend his title.
Jonas Vingegaard will no doubt be ever present and it is likely that we will see several stages when Jonas and Tadej are the last two left at the front of the race. His form is improving and lest we forget, he has beaten Tadej in the Tour de France before. Cycling is a sport of fine margins and it’s possible that he might have a great day when Tadej is having a bad one. Seconds are hard to gain but easy to lose on some of the high mountain passes.
The final spot on the podium might be the most interesting race. I personally don’t think Remco Evenepoel will be on the podium as he seems to have a penchant for losing time at crucial moments in the Tour. But he is coming into his prime at 25, has won the Tour of Spain and certainly has talent and pedigree to compete. Similarly, I think that Florian Lipowitz is a prodigious talent but is still a little inexperienced at this level and likely to make some strategic mistakes at some point. Therefore, my pick for third place, is João Almeida who will use his mountain climbing skills in the final week to catapult himself into contention even as he rides in same team as Pogačar. While he will be asked to ride in support of Pogačar, UAE will want him to be nearby on the General Classification so that Jumbo-Visma are not solely focused on Tadej.
Winner: Tadej Pogačar
Second: Jonas Vingegaard
Third: João Almeida
So ends the Nevstar’s Guide to the Tour de France 2025 edition.
Sky Sport will have every stage live and usually has the last two hours available to watch each morning. And if you want to whet your appetite for the 2025 edition, the brilliant Netflix docuseries Unchained has just released the third and final Season 3 showcasing the 2024 Tour.
Bonne nuit et bon courage
The Nevstar
Appendix
The sport of cycling is replete with French terms that are used to describe different elements of the sport. Here are a few of the common ones you might hear during the Tour coverage.
Autobus – a group of riders, usually sprinters, who form together at the back of the race and ride together to try and beat the time limit on a mountain stage. Also called a grupetto in Italian.
Commissaire – the referee who makes decisions about the race Director Sportif – the manager or coach of the cycling team Domestique – support rider for the team leader
Echelon – when the wind is blowing across the road, riders may form an “echelon” which is a diagonal line across the road in order to get maximum protection from the wind.
Flamme Rouge – red banner indicating 1km to go in the stage
Hors Categorie – beyond classification denoting the hardest mountain passes. All mountain passes are given a category with “4” being the easiest and “1” the hardest. However, some mountains are considered “beyond classification” and therefore known as “HC” or hors categorie.
Lantern Rouge – colloquial term for the last person in the general classification. The phrase literally translates as “red lantern” which was the light hung on the last carriage of a train in times past.
Maillot Blanc – the white jersey (denoting leader of the young rider’s classification)
Maillot Jaune – the yellow jersey (denoting leader of the general classification)
Maillot à Pois Rouge – the polka dot jersey (denoting leader of the mountains classification)
Maillot Verte – the green jersey (denoting leader of the points classification)
Palmares – a cyclist CV containing all their achievements
Parcours - course or route
Peloton – the main body of cyclists
Poursuivant(s) – chasing cyclist or group of cyclists
Rouleur - a rider who goes well on the flat or rolling terrain and can produce very high wattage for short bursts
Soigneur – a rider’s assistant who supplies drinks, food, and support
Tete de la course – leader of the race on the road
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